Contributions and Challenges of Agro-trade to Food Security

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Contributions and Challenges of Agro-trade to Food Security

Transcript Of Contributions and Challenges of Agro-trade to Food Security

Prepared for the WTO Agricultural Policy Landscape Symposium, Geneva, Switzerland, June.13-14, 2018
Contributions and Challenges of Agro-trade to Food Security in China
Jing ZHU
College of Economics & Management Nanjing Agricultural University , P.R.China

Outline
 China’s Food Security Status and Progress  China’s Agricultural Trade Development  Contributions of Agro-trade to China’s Food Security  Challenges of Agro-trade to China’s Food Security  Ways Forward
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 Improvement in Food Consumptions in China

Per Capita Consumption of Major Food Items in China ,1960s-2010s

Cereals

150 91.2

Vegetables

79.7

348

Fruits 4.3

94

Meat 3.8

62

Eggs

19 2.1

2013 1961

Milk Fish, Seafood

33 2.5
35 4.8

kg/capita/yr

Vegetable Oils

7 1.2

Aquatic Products

10 0.4

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400

Note: Cereals excludes beer, fruits excludes wine, milk excludes butter, aquatic Products include aquatic animals & plants.

Sources: FAOSTAT “Food Balance Sheets”

3

 China Ranked 45th among 113 Countries in the 2017 GFSI Ranking
GFSI Scores Comparison between China and Other Countries (2012-2017)
Notes: score 0-100 where 100=best. Sources: EUI(2017) “Global Food Security Index 2017”.
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 Domestic Food Production Growth

1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016

China’s Grain Output Growth,1952-2016

Million tones 700

2015 600
2013

500

1996

400
300 1958
200

1984 1978

100

0

Sources: NBSC “China Statistics Yearbook”(various years)

China’s Other Major Food Products output growth,1980-2016 (Million tones)

Year
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Meat
12 19 29 41 60 61 62 64 66 69 71 69 73 76 79 80 84 85 87 86 85

Fruits
7 12 19 42 62 67 70 145 153 161 171 181 192 204 214 228 241 251 261 274 284

Vegetables
484 529 540 551 565 540 565 592 618 651 679 709 735 760 785 798

Phase I: 1949-1978
– Low level – Net exporter foreign exchange earner

China’s Agricultural Trade, 1949-1978

China’s Cereals Trade, 1949-1978

7
Billion $
6 5 4 3 2 1 0

Export

Import

Source: China Customs data

10
Million MT
8

Export

Import

6

4

2

0
1949

1954

1958

1962

1966

1970

1974

1978

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Phase II: 1979-1993
– Growing in volume – Comparative advantage – Net exporter

China’s Agricultural Trade Balance,1979-1993 China’s Trade of Selected products, 1980-1990

14
Billion $
12 10
8 6 4 2 0

Export

Import

Balance

Source: China Customs

Billion $
8 Export
Live Animals and Meat
6
Aquatic products
4 Cereals, Oilseeds and Vegetable Oil
2 Vegetable and Fruits
0 Import Live Animals and Meat
-2 Aquatic products
-4 Cereals, Oilseeds and Vegetable Oil
Vegetable and Fruits

1980 1985 1990
0.8 0.8 1.2 0.4 0.3 1.4 0.5 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.3 2.3
0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 2.5 1.1 2.5 0.1 0.1 0.1
7

Phase III: 1994-2000
– Fluctuation – Adjusting to domestic production-consumption – Soybean imports growing
Preparing to join WTO

China’s Agricultural Trade

Export 18
Billion $
16
14
12

Import

Balance

Net Import of China’s Cereals (Million MT)

7

Cereals Rice Wheat Maize Soybean

6 1994 2.6 -1.0 7.2 8.7

-0.8

5 1995 19.8 1.6 11.4 5.1

-0.1

10

4 1996 9.6 0.5 7.7 0.2

0.9

8

3 1997 -4.2 -0.6 1.5 -6.7

2.7

6

2

4

1998 -5.0 -3.5 1.3 -4.4

3.0

2

1

1999 -4.0 -2.5 0.3 -4.3

4.1

0

0

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

2000 -10.7 -2.7 0.7 -10.5

10.2

Source: China Customs

8 Notes: “+” means net import, while “-” means net export

Phase IV: 2001--
- Joined WTO
• Tariff cuts  17.9% in 2001 to 15.2% in 2016
• Establish a Tariff Rate Quota (TRQ) import system  wheat, corn, rice, sugar, cotton, wool
• Reduce the export subsidies and state trading • Cap domestic agricultural support
– 8.5% AMS
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• Increasing Trade Volume
China Agricultural Trade, 2001-2016
Billion $
Source: China Customs 10
AnimalsImportSourcesProductsChina