Flexibility assessment of future generation mix using the
Transcript Of Flexibility assessment of future generation mix using the
Flexibility assessment of future generation mix using the IRENA FlexTool
Copenhagen, 25 May 2018 Emanuele Taibi, Power Sector Transformation Strategies, IRENA
Power Sector Transformation at IRENA
Market design, regulation, business models
• Adapting electricity market design to high shares of VRE
• Country regulatory advice
• Power sector innovation landscape report (forthcoming)
Long term, least cost capacity expansion plan
• Best practices in longterm scenario-based modelling report, Planning for the renewable future
• Recommendations discussed at a Latin American regional workshop in Buenos Aires
Unit commitment and economic dispatch
• Production cost modeling (using PLEXOS)
• Developing flexibility assessment methodology and optimization tool (FlexTool)
• Developing a global storage valuation framework, to assess the value of storage in different markets
Grid studies
• Technical network studies
• A guide for VRE integration studies is upcoming (Q4 2017)
• Technical assessments for larger power systems
Devise optimal pathways for power sector transformation
The Role of Flexibility on VRE Integration
VRE PROPERTIES
SYSTEM IMPACTS
SOLUTIONS
PLANNING STAGES
NonSynchronous
Locationconstrained & distributed
Decreased angular momentum
Voltage sags
Transmission congestion
Frequency & Voltage response provision
Voltage control systems
Transmission upgrades
Geo-spatial planning & Technical network studies
Geo-spatial planning & Technical network studies
Uncertainty
Real-time supply/demand
mismatch
Increase system flexibility
Dispatch simulation
Variability
Increased cycling of conventional units
System reliability issues
Increase system flexibility
Firm capacity provision
Generation expansion planning
Source: IRENA (2017), Planning for the Renewable Future: Long-term modelling and tools to expand variable renewable power in emerging economies
Overview of technical studies
Common modelling software: indicative coverage
MESSAGE
Quantum GIS
MARKAL/TIMES
ArcGIS
IRENA FlexTool
PLEXOS-LT BALMOREL
PLEXOS-ST
Grid-View
OPT-GEN WASP GT-MAX
SDPP WASP
GT-Max
NEPLAN Power Factory
PSSE
Cap. expansion Geo-spatial
Dispatch
N6 XX MW N4 XX MW
N5XX M W
T RANSMISION SYST EM OVERVIEW 2016
Zone 4 N1 XX MW
Zone 2
Zone 6 N2 XXM W
N7 XX MW
Area 2
Peak demand: Low demand:
700 MW 400 MW
Ins talled C apac ity :1500 MW
Total Trans fer C apac ity 564 MW
Zone 8
MW
N3 XX
Zone 9
N8 XX MW
Zone 5
N1 0 N9
Total Trans fer C apac ity 500 MW
Zone 7 S3314 MW
Zone 11
C2 XX M W
Area 1
Peak demand: Low demand:
500 MW 350 MW
Ins talled C apac ity : 600 MW
Zone 1
Zone 12
Zone 13
Area 3
Peak demand: Low demand:
1500 MW 565 MW
Ins talled C apac ity : 1200 MW
C1 XX MW
Zone 10
C4 XX MW
Zone 3 C3 XX MW
S145 MW S 2 155 MW
Static grid
Dynamic grid
Power system flexibility assessment – IRENA
FlexTool
§ IRENA FlexTool – developed in
cooperation with VTT
§ Which aspects of flexibility to
consider?
§ Ramp rates
§ Minimum load levels
§ Storage § Interconnectors
Transmission
Flexible Thermal Generation
§ Demand response
§ Enough flexibility in the system?
§ How much curtailment? § How much unserved energy? § Currently being applied for five
Demand Side Management
Power2Grid (Heat, gas…)
countries, planned for 20+
Flexible Hydro Generation
Energy Storage Systems
6
(The need for) an energy systems model
04/06/2018
§ Cost minimization § Enforces energy
balances § Transfers § Storages § Conversions § Demand response § LP online, startup § 1 upward reserve § LP investments § Non-synchronous limit § Capacity adequacy
7
Assessing the Flexibility Gap
• IRENA FlexTool: assess the flexibility gap and identify least cost solutions • How can the FlexTool capture a lack of flexibility in the system?
MW
Ramp Capability (MW)
Non-supplied energy
10000
loss of load
9000
curtailed
demand_dec
8000 elec_heater
7000
oil_boiler
demand_inc
6000
battery
5000
PV
wind
4000
Hydro_ROR
3000 Hydro_RES
Geothermal
2000
ST_bio
CC_oi l
1000
GT_gas
0
ST_coal
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49
Time
Curtailment of variable renewables
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
-5000
-10000
-15000 0
50
100
150
Time
+upward 1h VG
upward 1h ramping
net load ramp
downward 1h ramping -downward 1h VG
IRENA FlexTool: scope and limitations
Type of flexibility issues checked • Loss of load (insufficient capacity) • Reserves’ shortage • Insufficient ramp rate • Curtailments of VRE generation • Spilling of hydro power • Transmission congestion
FlexTool does not consider • Frequency and voltage • Stability • Distribution grid • Start-up time of thermal power plants • Integers for unit commitment or
investment • Transmission is in nominal power
capacity (no AC, no Kirchhoff laws)
Conclusions
• Flexibility is becoming a buzzword, with significant semantic risks: i. Everyone agrees we need more flexibility, although we might have different issues in mind ii. Increasing flexibility often means removing non-technical constraints in the power sector iii. At high shares of VRE, investments will be required on both demand and supply-side flexibility – dispatch captures some, others come from detailed grid analysis (e.g. sync condensers) iv. Key to consider flexibility beyond supply, transmission and storage: coupling heart and gas grids v. Need for bridging long term energy system models and short term power sector models… vi. …overcomplicating technical details for 2030 or 2050 scenarios let uncertain assumptions drive results
• IRENA is applying the FlexTool jointly with Member Countries through multiple engagement routes • FlexTool will be integrated in the IRENA Energy Transformation Model framework
Copenhagen, 25 May 2018 Emanuele Taibi, Power Sector Transformation Strategies, IRENA
Power Sector Transformation at IRENA
Market design, regulation, business models
• Adapting electricity market design to high shares of VRE
• Country regulatory advice
• Power sector innovation landscape report (forthcoming)
Long term, least cost capacity expansion plan
• Best practices in longterm scenario-based modelling report, Planning for the renewable future
• Recommendations discussed at a Latin American regional workshop in Buenos Aires
Unit commitment and economic dispatch
• Production cost modeling (using PLEXOS)
• Developing flexibility assessment methodology and optimization tool (FlexTool)
• Developing a global storage valuation framework, to assess the value of storage in different markets
Grid studies
• Technical network studies
• A guide for VRE integration studies is upcoming (Q4 2017)
• Technical assessments for larger power systems
Devise optimal pathways for power sector transformation
The Role of Flexibility on VRE Integration
VRE PROPERTIES
SYSTEM IMPACTS
SOLUTIONS
PLANNING STAGES
NonSynchronous
Locationconstrained & distributed
Decreased angular momentum
Voltage sags
Transmission congestion
Frequency & Voltage response provision
Voltage control systems
Transmission upgrades
Geo-spatial planning & Technical network studies
Geo-spatial planning & Technical network studies
Uncertainty
Real-time supply/demand
mismatch
Increase system flexibility
Dispatch simulation
Variability
Increased cycling of conventional units
System reliability issues
Increase system flexibility
Firm capacity provision
Generation expansion planning
Source: IRENA (2017), Planning for the Renewable Future: Long-term modelling and tools to expand variable renewable power in emerging economies
Overview of technical studies
Common modelling software: indicative coverage
MESSAGE
Quantum GIS
MARKAL/TIMES
ArcGIS
IRENA FlexTool
PLEXOS-LT BALMOREL
PLEXOS-ST
Grid-View
OPT-GEN WASP GT-MAX
SDPP WASP
GT-Max
NEPLAN Power Factory
PSSE
Cap. expansion Geo-spatial
Dispatch
N6 XX MW N4 XX MW
N5XX M W
T RANSMISION SYST EM OVERVIEW 2016
Zone 4 N1 XX MW
Zone 2
Zone 6 N2 XXM W
N7 XX MW
Area 2
Peak demand: Low demand:
700 MW 400 MW
Ins talled C apac ity :1500 MW
Total Trans fer C apac ity 564 MW
Zone 8
MW
N3 XX
Zone 9
N8 XX MW
Zone 5
N1 0 N9
Total Trans fer C apac ity 500 MW
Zone 7 S3314 MW
Zone 11
C2 XX M W
Area 1
Peak demand: Low demand:
500 MW 350 MW
Ins talled C apac ity : 600 MW
Zone 1
Zone 12
Zone 13
Area 3
Peak demand: Low demand:
1500 MW 565 MW
Ins talled C apac ity : 1200 MW
C1 XX MW
Zone 10
C4 XX MW
Zone 3 C3 XX MW
S145 MW S 2 155 MW
Static grid
Dynamic grid
Power system flexibility assessment – IRENA
FlexTool
§ IRENA FlexTool – developed in
cooperation with VTT
§ Which aspects of flexibility to
consider?
§ Ramp rates
§ Minimum load levels
§ Storage § Interconnectors
Transmission
Flexible Thermal Generation
§ Demand response
§ Enough flexibility in the system?
§ How much curtailment? § How much unserved energy? § Currently being applied for five
Demand Side Management
Power2Grid (Heat, gas…)
countries, planned for 20+
Flexible Hydro Generation
Energy Storage Systems
6
(The need for) an energy systems model
04/06/2018
§ Cost minimization § Enforces energy
balances § Transfers § Storages § Conversions § Demand response § LP online, startup § 1 upward reserve § LP investments § Non-synchronous limit § Capacity adequacy
7
Assessing the Flexibility Gap
• IRENA FlexTool: assess the flexibility gap and identify least cost solutions • How can the FlexTool capture a lack of flexibility in the system?
MW
Ramp Capability (MW)
Non-supplied energy
10000
loss of load
9000
curtailed
demand_dec
8000 elec_heater
7000
oil_boiler
demand_inc
6000
battery
5000
PV
wind
4000
Hydro_ROR
3000 Hydro_RES
Geothermal
2000
ST_bio
CC_oi l
1000
GT_gas
0
ST_coal
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49
Time
Curtailment of variable renewables
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
-5000
-10000
-15000 0
50
100
150
Time
+upward 1h VG
upward 1h ramping
net load ramp
downward 1h ramping -downward 1h VG
IRENA FlexTool: scope and limitations
Type of flexibility issues checked • Loss of load (insufficient capacity) • Reserves’ shortage • Insufficient ramp rate • Curtailments of VRE generation • Spilling of hydro power • Transmission congestion
FlexTool does not consider • Frequency and voltage • Stability • Distribution grid • Start-up time of thermal power plants • Integers for unit commitment or
investment • Transmission is in nominal power
capacity (no AC, no Kirchhoff laws)
Conclusions
• Flexibility is becoming a buzzword, with significant semantic risks: i. Everyone agrees we need more flexibility, although we might have different issues in mind ii. Increasing flexibility often means removing non-technical constraints in the power sector iii. At high shares of VRE, investments will be required on both demand and supply-side flexibility – dispatch captures some, others come from detailed grid analysis (e.g. sync condensers) iv. Key to consider flexibility beyond supply, transmission and storage: coupling heart and gas grids v. Need for bridging long term energy system models and short term power sector models… vi. …overcomplicating technical details for 2030 or 2050 scenarios let uncertain assumptions drive results
• IRENA is applying the FlexTool jointly with Member Countries through multiple engagement routes • FlexTool will be integrated in the IRENA Energy Transformation Model framework